Wednesday, September 17, 2008

帮学校理发店做market sizing

By 阿杜.Steward
Shanghai


今天在学校理发,跟老板聊完这边的生意。晚上回来做了个excel 算算我们学校理发市场的market size。

还是有一些findings的
1. 现在学校里有两间理发店,两家的barber都是老板,然后再雇用一个员工。去除2-3K每月的铺租和其他开销,其实收入大概捉襟见肘的。
2.现在两家理发店的布局相对合理,之前曾经迅速开张过一家大型的,然后迅速倒闭,看来没有做好市场预测:P
3.在学校里面的理发店主要收入来源还是男生为主,看来找一间男女比例悬殊的学校开店更有帮助:)



4.如果你是老板,当然还可以根据你的目标营业额推算出一些达到目标收入的方法。例如应该接待多少顾客(可能要一些marketing的方法来吸引更多顾客),以及是不是应该退出更多的附加值服务,修改定价等(不妨把每次7元的收费改到10元看看收入达到多少,其实这两家店老板商量一下一起提价未尝不可的。)


见表(click to enlarge)



note-黄色部分为变量
可以到下面地址下载源文件,修改假设条件
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=poq3O28m9BO7dq1lJaIgAbA&output=xls

For crosscheck


交叉检验是为了两个维度的估算在合理范围之内。

7 Comentários:

HL said...

同济的男女比例既然是50-50?为什么以前我从复旦南区后面穿过同济去吃小山东泡馍的时候看到的都是男人。。。

男女理发同价这个假设似乎不合理,即使只是单剪,也应该女生贵些吧?而且我觉得additional service的价格也保守了,呵呵,女生可都是能花钱的主。。。

我觉得对于校区内的理发店,如果不是只想果腹的话,找准niche market最重要。楼主可以先SWOT一下,比如为什么学生不回市区而在校区理发,本地生跟外地生的差别,有多大price differentiation的空间等等:)

阿杜.Steward said...

呵呵,很有point啊。
Btw,现在同济的mm也很多了:P

Jimmy said...

Hey Steward~

I have just browsed your blog, and made a scrutiny into your barber shop market sizing table . It looks good, but seems you could have exploited it more deeply. For example, in my opinion, the perm or dye hair should be taken more consideration and those services could account for larger contribution to the total revenue than normal hair cut. Moreover, I'm not quit sure that if market size just includes revenue or anything else, such as different consumer levels, cost, relations between suppliers and demanders and etc. As I didn't take much professional training on case study, could you give me some details if possible~

Have a good vacation.

阿杜.Steward said...

Hey, Jimmy

Thanks a bunch for your comments :P
You hit the points and as you mentioned, when doing a good quality Market sizing study, 2 things are of paramount importance-

- the structured model (demand vs supply, top down vs bottom up)
- how to fill in the data (based assumption and survey)

When doing a case interviews, due to time and resources constraint, they focus on the first aspect (how well-structured you present your logic). If a good model framework is done, it certainly lay good foundation for the final output.

However, as you may already felt, It takes long time and good effort in real business case doing data massage in the model framework (consultant traveling non-stop, numerous customer interviews, countless market research etc...)

When it comes to case training, it's possible to build a model to market size every business (from school barber to how many beer bottle is produced in China). Approaches may vary, they should be judged whether it had covered all segments and whether the data is easy to get.So next time, when you're sitting along your pc with an excel app, you can probably think about building a model for fun :P

Hope it helps

Best.

Chris said...

The respective hair cut times/m of male and female being .67 & .33 are not very plausible.

The extra svc on male size being 20% sounds like a lump-sum est. with less logic.

Last pt. to add in is about the target mkt seg. The whole pop should first be cut by halves as male & female, instead of hafting the seg pop after assuming a 30% barber rate. The reason is female tend to lean on hair cutting outside of campus (or you may give more analyusis to justify it).

Aren't you gonna incl. special svc for the suburban campus? :)

Steward said...

Very good point in dividing the pop by gender in the first place !!

Well, the special service, thinking about it, but the school has very strict rule :(

Jack Wang said...

Hey, today when I am trying to built a modle, I just found out that it is not difficult to built it ,but it is need a lot of effort to make sure every assumption you do is true. Maybe that is like what you have said,it didn't cost too much time to brainstorm,the fact makes,you need to spend quite a lot time in some details.That is.
BTY, I just had a hair cut today, and chatted with the boss, just found out there is 50 people everyday in average.Maybe that is something we call details.

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